... konulu sunumlar: "Yolcuların sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik değişkenler, A ve B şehirlerinin sahip olduğu nüfus- nüfusun fazla olması hava ulaşımına olan potansiyel talebi."— Sunum transkripti:
Yolcuların sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik değişkenler, A ve B şehirlerinin sahip olduğu nüfus- nüfusun fazla olması hava ulaşımına olan potansiyel talebi artıracaktır. A ve B şehirleri arasındaki ekonomik etkileşimler hava yolculuğuna olan potansiyel talebi etkileyecektir. Harcanabilir gelir, eğitim düzeyi, nüfusun ortalama yaşı hava yolculuğuna olan potansiyel talebi etkileyecektir.
A ve B Seyahat amacı da potansiyel talep etkilemektedir. İş amaçlı yolculukların sahip olduğu talep turizm ve VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) ile ilgili potansiyel talebi düşürmektedir.
Havayolu yolculuğunun fiyatı da potansiyel talep üzerinde etkili olmaktadır. Havayolu işletmelerinin uyguladığı fiyatlar ve fiyat kısıtlamaları (such as Saturday night minimum stay requirements and non-refundability) potansiyel talebi etkileyen en önemli unsurlardan birisidir. Tren, otobüs ve diğer taşıma modlarının fiyatları da havayolu talebi üzerinden etkili olmaktadır. Özellikle kısa mesafeli hatlarda diğer taşıma modları havayolu talebine alternatif olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır.
Hizmet kalitesinin sahip olduğu düzey de havayolu talebini etkilemektedir. Hizmet kalitesi havayolu talebi üzerinde olduğu kadar diğer taşıma modlarının talepleri üzerinde etkili olacaktır. Uçuş frekansları, toplam yolculuk süreleri kalite unsuru olarak talebi etkilemektedir. Rahatlık, emniyet, kabin içi hizmetler ve havayolu hizmetine diğer taşıma modlarından daha kolay ulaşılması potansiyel talebi etkileyen diğer kalite unsurlarıdır.
Total Trip Time and Frequency As introduced above, next to the price of air travel, total trip time is the most important factor affecting demand for airline services.
Total Trip Time and Frequency total trip time includes: Access and egress times to/from airports at origin and destination. Pre-departure and post-arrival processing times at each airport. Actual flight times plus connecting times between flights.
Total Trip Time and Frequency Increased frequency of departures and the existence of non-stop flights both reduce total trip time in an O-D market. Intuitively, a reduction in total trip time (represented as an average value over all potential passengers in an O-D market) should lead to an increase in total air travel demand.
Total Trip Time Model Total trip time for a passenger air trip is denoted as T, where: T = t (fixed) + t (flight) + t (schedule displacement) fixed time elements include access and egress, Flight time includes aircraft block times plus connecting times at intermediate stops The schedule displacement component of total trip time can be expressed approximately as having a simple inverse relationship with the frequency of service.
schedule displacement t (schedule displacement) = K/Frequency K is a constant expressed in hours frequency is the number of flight departures (per day) in the market or “wait time”
consider a non-stop market in which the desired departure times of passengers are distributed uniformly between 06:00 and 22:00, a 16-hour period of “reasonable” departure times. In this case, if only one flight per day were offered at 14:00, the mean schedule displacement time for a typical passenger would be 4.0 hours the possible “wait times” range from 0 for those passengers wishing to depart at 14:00, to a maximum of 8 hours for passengers with departure time preferences of 06:00 or 22:00 6-10-14-18-22
As the airline increases its frequency of service to two daily flights assuming the departure times are chosen to minimize mean wait times, with flights at 10:00 and 18:00), the overall average schedule displacement time drops to 2.0 hours. K would be equal to 4 in expression (3.3).
Air Travel Demand Models An additive or linear price–demand model takes the form D = a − bP, D is the market demand, P is the average market price, a and b are parameters that represent the intercept and slope of the demand function with respect to price. In this linear model, each $1 increase in market price is assumed to lead to a demand decrease equal to b.
Air Travel Demand Models Demand models are mathematical representations of the relationship between demand and selected explanatory variables. linear price–demand model takes the form D = a − bP, D is the market demand, P is the average market price, a and b are parameters that represent the intercept and slope of the demand function with respect to price. A multiplicative price–demand model is of the form D = aPb,
In this linear model, each $1 increase in market price is assumed to lead to a demand decrease equal to b.
Elasticity of Air Travel Demand The price elasticity of demand is the percentage change in total market demand that occurs with a 1% increase in average price charged. Price elasticity is negative for “normal” (as opposed to “luxury”) goods and services. A 10% price increase will cause an X% demand decrease, all else being equal
Elasticity of Air Travel Demand Historically, it has been assumed that business air travel demand tends to be slightly “inelastic” (0 > Ep > − 1.0), meaning that the volume of demand does not change by as much as a change in price, in percentage terms. Inelastic (−0.8) business demand for air travel means less sensitivity to price changes. A 10% price increase leads to only an 8% demand reduction.
Elasticity of Air Travel Demand On the other hand, leisure demand for air travel is assumed to be much more “elastic” (Ep < −1.0), meaning the percentage response of total demand is greater than the percentage change in price. On the other hand, elastic (−1.6) leisure demand for air travel means a greater sensitivity to price changes. A 10% price increase causes a 16% demand decrease.
An airline will try to increase fares for inelastic business travelers in order to increase total revenues. At the same time, the airline should decrease fares for elastic leisure travelers if it wants to increase revenues from this demand segment.
the time elasticity of demand is the percentage change in total O-D demand that occurs with a 1% increase in total trip time (T ), as defined previously. Time elasticity is also negative, as a 10% increase in total trip time will cause an X% demand decrease, all else being equal (e.g., no change in prices).
Business air travel demand is assumed to be more time elastic (Et Et > − 1.0), because price-sensitive vacationers are more willing to endure longer total trip times (less frequent service, connecting flights) if necessary to secure a lower fare.
characteristics of most of the travelers Type 1 : Time sensitive and insensitive to price. This demand segment represents the traditional characterization of business travelers who prefer to travel on flights that meet their schedule requirements, and are willing to pay a higher fare to do so.
characteristics of most of the travelers Type 2 : Time sensitive but price sensitive. This segment was not explicitly recognized in the traditional business–leisure classification, yet a large proportion of business travelers probably belong to this demand segment.
characteristics of most of the travelers Type 3 : Price sensitive and insensitive to time constraints. This segment contains the classical leisure or vacation travelers, willing to change their time and day of travel, and even destination airports, to find a seat at the lowest possible fare. This group is willing to stop or make connections and can meet virtually any travel or ticketing conditions associated with a low fare.
characteristics of most of the travelers Type 4 : Insensitive to both price and time constraints. This segment includes the relatively few consumers that have little or no time constraints for travel, yet are willing to pay for high levels of service. Type 4 consumers can be combined with the Type 1 group, since both are willing to purchase a high-priced fare product to secure a high level of service and/or travel flexibility, regardless of their trip purpose.
Airline Competition and Market Share Airlines compete for passengers and market share based on the following factors: Frequency of flights and departure schedule on each route served. Price charged, relative to other airlines, to the extent that regulation allows for price competition. Quality of service and products offered, including airport and in-flight service amenities and/or restrictions on discount fare products.
Airline Competition and Market Share For this discussion, market share is expressed in terms of the share of passengers carried by an airline, although it could also be expressed in terms of the airline’s share of market RPK or revenues.