2014 TURKISH LOCAL VOTING ADVICE APPLICATION (VAA) COMPARıSONS WıTH THE 2011 GENERAL ELECTıON VAA Ali Çarkoğlu Kerem Yıldırım Andre Krouwel.

... konulu sunumlar: "2014 TURKISH LOCAL VOTING ADVICE APPLICATION (VAA) COMPARıSONS WıTH THE 2011 GENERAL ELECTıON VAA Ali Çarkoğlu Kerem Yıldırım Andre Krouwel."— Sunum transkripti:

1 2014 TURKISH LOCAL VOTING ADVICE APPLICATION (VAA) COMPARıSONS WıTH THE 2011 GENERAL ELECTıON VAA Ali Çarkoğlu Kerem Yıldırım Andre Krouwel

2 SUMMARY 9 VAA’s in 8 metropolitan municipalities and one generic vaa for the rest of the country  İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Diyarbakır, Antalya, Samsun, Kayseri and Erzurum 30 questions to determine political positions in two dimensional space  16 Local questions tailored for the specific issues in the locality  14 National questions measuring the position in national issues (corruption, privatization, Kurdish question etc…)

3 POSITIONS OF POLITICALLY RELEVANT PARTIES IN DIFFERENT CITIES: Istanbul Ankara

4 Izmir Diyarbakır

5 AntalyaErzurum

6 KayseriSamsun

7 Generic

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20 Impact of the Economic Left-Right position and Conservative-Reformist position on the Propensity to Vote for the 4 Politically Relevant Parties: AKPCHPMHPBDP&HDP Economic Left-Right Position (X axis) 0.372**-0.546*0.413*0.265 -0.115-0.221-0.193-0.197 Conservative-Reformist Position (Y axis) -1.335***-0.264-2.028***3.777*** -0.114-0.219-0.19-0.196 Egocentric Retro Econ.Eval. 0.0440.102*-0.0160.026 -0.024-0.047-0.041-0.043 Sociotropic Retro Econ.Eval. 0.339***-0.564***-0.120**0.168*** -0.027-0.052-0.045-0.047 Sociotropic Prosp. Econ.Eval. 0.335***-0.148**-0.122**0.016 -0.026-0.05-0.044-0.046 Female 0.009-0.144-0.601***0.441** -0.095-0.183-0.159-0.165 Age 0.0060.023**-0.049***0.012 -0.004-0.008 Education -0.157*-0.353**-0.2120.038 -0.067-0.131-0.114-0.121 Kurdish 0.421*-2.193***-1.270***3.271*** -0.19-0.368-0.323-0.32 Constant 1.832***9.374***8.428***-1.994* -0.454-0.879-0.761-0.803 R-squared 0.6470.2290.1670.314 N 1544154815061481 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28