WORLD ECONOMY AND TURKEY in a Long Term Perspective By Mehmet Bulut Professor of Economics and Economic History

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1 WORLD ECONOMY AND TURKEY in a Long Term Perspective By Mehmet Bulut Professor of Economics and Economic History Email:mehmetbulut05@gmail.com

2 World economy in long term

3 GDP share, 1820-2000

4 GDP, Population and Energy in long term

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15 Urban Population

16 Children Per woman

17 Median Age

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19 Changing World Economy

20 Catch up!

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22 Population, GDP and GDP per capita in 2050

23 Top 20 in 2009 and 2050 (ppp)

24 Some Rise and some Fall

25 GDP per capita for G7/E7 (2009,2050)

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27 GDP Growth Annual, % (2002-2012) YEARUSAEuropean Union Middle East& North Africa Latin AmericaEast Asia & Pasific Sub-Saharan Africa 2002 1.81.32.20.63.4 2003 2.41.54.91.83.9 4.3 2004 3.52.67.15.74.9 6.1 2005 3.12.15.34.34.4 5.7 2006 2.73.35.75.45.2 6.4 2007 1.93.24.95.16.1 6.8 2008 -0.40.34.93.63.0 4.9 2009 -3.1-4.31.7-2.10.4 2.7 2010 2.42.14.75.46.9 5.0 2011 1.81.65.63.9 4.5 2012 2.2-0.3 3.04.3

28 GDP Growth Annual, % (2002-2012)

29 YEARWORLDHigh IncomeLow IncomeTurkey 2002 2.11.73.1 6.2 2003 2.72.23.8 5.3 2004 4.03.25.9 9.4 2005 3.52.76.3 8.4 2006 4.13.16.1 6.9 2007 5.22.96.4 4.7 2008 2.40.35.4 0.7 2009 -0.8-3.65.1 -4.8 2010 5.03.05.9 9.2 2011 3.81.85.9 8.8 2012 3.11.35.9 2.2 Source: World Bank: World Development Indicators GDP Growth Annual, % (2002-2012)

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31 Europe! To where?

32 Scenarios for Top Ten in the World Economy (2010,2030,2050) Ranking201020302050 1USAChina 2 USAIndia 3JapanIndiaUSA 4IndiaJapanBrazil 5GermanyBrazilJapan 6Russia 7BrazilGermanyMexico 8UKMexicoIndonesia 9France Turkey 10ItalyTurkeyGermany Source: All data based on purchasing power parity using IMF 2010 base, 2030 and 2050 PwC, addition author’s estimations for Turkey.

33 Büyüme Oranları, % (2003-2012) YılDünyaABDAvrupa Birliği ÇinHindistanBrezilyaRusyaTurkiye 20032.72.41.510.07.91.17.3 5.3 20044.03.52.610.17.85.77.2 9.4 20053.53.12.111.39.33.26.4 8.4 20064.12.73.312.79.34.08.2 6.9 20075.21.93.214.29.86.18.5 4.7 20082.4-0.40.39.63.95.2 0.7 2009-0.8-3.1-4.39.28.5-0.3-7.8 -4.8 20105.02.42.110.410.57.54.5 9.2 20113.81.81.69.36.32.74.3 8.8 20123.12.2-0.37.83.20.93.4 2.2

34 Büyüme Oranları, % (2003-2012 )

35 Dünya, ABD, Euro, BRICT (IMF Projeksiyonu) Büyüme oranları % (2012-2014) DünyaABDEuroÇinIndiaBrezilyaRusyaTürkiye 20123.22.2-0.67.84.00.93.43.2 20133.31.9-0.38.05.73.03.43.3 20144.03.01.18.26.24.03.84.0

36 GSMH 2012, SGP (PPP) SırasıÜlkeGSMH (ABD, doları)NüfusFert Başına düşen Gelir (ABD doları) 1ABD15,684,800 312,879,00049,965 2Çin12,470,982 1,339,724,8529.293 3Hindistan4,793,4141,210,193,4223.876 4Japonya4,490,681127,760,00035,204 5Rusya3,380,071142,914,13623.549 6Almanya3,307,873 81,889,839 40,394 7Brezilya2,365,779 198,656,019 11,909 8Fransa2,354,874 65,696,689 35,845 9İngiltere2,264,751 63,227,526 35,819 10Meksika2,015,281 120,847,477 16,676 11İtalya1,980,574 60,917,978 32.512 12 Güney Kore1,536,212 50,004,000 30,722 13Kanada1,489,165 34,880,491 42,693 14İspanya1,484,950 46,217,961 32.129 15Türkiye1,306,155 73,997,128 17.651

37 Turkiye Ne zaman ilk 10 da olabilir? Nasil? Nufus+ Nitelikli Nufus Teknoloji ve AR-GE Kurumsal Yapi (Anayasa Yeni Ekonomik Hinterland Bolgesel Baris

38 AR-GE 2012 Yilinda Dunyanin AR-GE Yapan Ilk 1500 Sirketinde Sadece 5 adet Turk Sirketi var. Ilk 1500 Sirketin cirosu: 15,7 Trilyon AG-GE Harcamalari: 511 Milyar Euro Turkiye’de (Kamu-ozel) Toplam AR-GE Harcamasi:5 Milyar Euro Finlandiya Nokia tek basina: 5 Milyar Euro Panasonic: 5 milyar Euro

39 2020, 2030, 2050, 2070 Hedefleri! Nufus Artisi ! +Nitelikli Nufus artışı Sermaye,Teknoloji ve AR-GE Harcamaları Artışı Kurumsal Yapı (Anayasa, Baris ve Sistemin etkin ve verimli calışması) Cografya’yı Büyütmek! ( Geniş Bir Ekonomik Hinterland!) Yeni İpek Yolu Güzergahı Enerji

40 TEŞEKKÜRLER! THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION AND UNDERSTANDING!