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Dağıtım Şirketleri’nde Varlık Yönetimi

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... konulu sunumlar: "Dağıtım Şirketleri’nde Varlık Yönetimi"— Sunum transkripti:

1 Dağıtım Şirketleri’nde Varlık Yönetimi
Barış Arıkan, GE Digital Energy

2 Elektriğin icadı dünyamızı değiştirdi
Fırsatlarla dolu yepyeni bir dünya The advent of electricity was a big deal for our world… people anxiously awaited the electrification of their neighborhoods. And it changed the way we live…today – in large part --taken for granted Our daily lives are indeed driven and maintained by electricity

3 İhtiyaç olduğunda kapasite artırımı
… daha fazla enerji ihtiyacı mı ? Endişelenmeye gerek yok. Not surprisingly, electricity demand growth tracks Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fairly closely in European nations, highlighting its role as a key driver of economic growth and productivity. Taking this into consideration, Europe has set goals to lower EU’s electricity consumption and GHG emissions 20% by 2020 (CHECK THIS FACT) However, if Europe continues to follow this present trend, not only will it fail to meet its own climate change objectives of 20% reductions by 2020, but consumption will actually go up 18% (source: Capgemini study, “Demand Response: a Decisive Breakthrough for Europe) As our economies have developed so have electrical infrastructures - but they have not advanced in the same way as many parts of modern society- dated technologies. In Great Britain, 50% of the entire power grid assets are older than 38 years old, with 20% being older than 50 years (Energy Networks Association) And the developing world is currently taking us all by storm…Half of the world’s nearly 1000 coal-fired power plants currently in the pipeline for finalization before 2012 are being built in China.

4 Artan Enerji Talebi Enerji ihtiyacının 40 yıl içinde üçe katlanması tahmin ediliyor With global energy consumption forecasted to triple by 2050 things aren’t going to get easier. We, as a world, must find a way to do more, with less ~ and quickly. Kaynak: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ERDC/CERL TR-05-21

5 Geçmişte işe yarayan metodlar artık geçerli değil
Eski şebeke yapılarının güncellenmesi gerekiyor Rekor sürelerde yeni şebeke yapıları inşa ediliyor Kaynaklar, yakıt, bakım vs üzerindeki baskı artıyor Things are changing Global power requirements are more intense – both from a capacity and quality standpoint- The UK and all of Europe are rapidly entering a period in which significant and ongoing new investment in electricity capacity will be required to keep supply in line with demand. Right here in the UK …by 2015, energy demand could exceed supply by 23% during peak hours, and economic growth means that the UK will need between GW of new generation in the next two decades (Dept. of Trade and Industry). That’s the equivalent of up to 35 coal-fired power plants. New technologies and a higher standard of living have produced changes in the way citizens consume electricity. As residents plug in computers, and install flat screen TVs, overall electricity demand increases. Economic growth and prosperity also means the demand for electricity and energy is rising – and will continue to rise.

6 Enerji fiyatları sürekli artışta
Avrupa – Elektrik faturalarındaki artış 200 Euro / yıl 2012’de 16%’lık artış Across the globe the price of electricity is on the rise. Here in Europe… In the UK, alone, electricity prices for consumers will likely rise more than 200 pounds per year to help England meet EU’s goal of reducing carbon emissions by 20% by 2020. UK household gas and electricity bills have increased by 23% and 16% respectively from August 2007 to September 2008 (ICIS) and many industrial companies have seen these prices more than double (ICIS) In a country where gas represents 36% of the generation mix, electricity costs will likely continue to rise, particularly as the demand for gas rises while the UK’s own gas production continues to decline (OfGem). Prices have also gone up in the rest of Europe, though to a lesser extent (ICIS)

7 Yaşlanan Altyapı ve İşgücü
% of our population will be 65 or older (update for UK if not global) Utilities are experiencing unprecedented ‘brain drain’ On average 25% of their skilled resources are expected to retire in the next 10 years, and electricity industry staff is down 60% since privitization 40% of the workforce now aged between 45 and 59 Apprentices account for only 4% of the workforce Assets in the grid that these people designed, manage and service are also aging. 50% of assets are over 38 years old; 20% over 50. So we can look forward to having an aged infrastructure, being pushed harder than ever, without the skilled resources to support it.

8 Enerji kesintileri günlük yaşamın parçası oldu
Power outages force evacuation of Woodstock Hastanesi Chicago, IL, 30 Temmuz 2008 Son 10 yılın en büyük kesintisinden sonra British Energy zamana karşı yarıştı İngiltere, 28 Mayıs 2008 Şiddetli yağmurun Euro 2008 TV yayını tüm dünyada kesmesi Vienna, Avusturya, 25 Haziran 2008 Kesinti sebebiyle makineye bağlı hastanın ölmesi Los Angeles, CA, 29 Mayıs 2008 Dolly kasırgasından sonra güç kesintisinin tüm Teksas’a yayılması Harlingen, Texas, 25 Temmuz 2008 Meksika iletim hatlarında yapılan bir manevranın tüm ülkede enerji kesintisine sebep olması Mexico City, Meksika, 26 Mayıs 2008 Güney Afrika’daki enerji kesintilerinin ulusal acil durum yaratması Johannesburg, Güney Afrika 13 Şubat 2008 Yeraltı yangınından sonra Vancouver’da ışıkların uzun süre gitmesi, finansal merkezlerde binlerce insanın enerjisiz kalması Vancouver, Kanada, 14 Temmuz 2008 As a result of this stress and strain power outages are all too common… And they create global inconveniences… The business operations curtailed in Korea - resulting in $16 million to $18 million in lost sales for the company Or the rolling power outages that have become an unwelcome fact of life amounting to a "national emergency" in South Africa Here in the UK, 500,000 residents went without power after seven power stations unexpectedly stopped working within hours of one another this past May (this may not be relevant as these are generation outages) Saatlerce uzayan kesintilerin Pakistan halkını isyana getirmesi ve hükümetin saat uygulamasını değiştirmesi Islamabad, Pakistan 1 Haziran 2008

9 Artan Karmaşıklık CONTROL CENTER KONTROL MERKEZİ CORPORATE HEADQUATER POWER STATION GÜÇ İSTASYONU CORPORATE HEADQUATER SOLAR POWER GÜNEŞ ENERJİSİ TRANSMISSION ENERJİ DEPOLAMA İLETİM COMMERCIAL TİCARİ HYBRID ARAÇLAR ENERGY STORAGE HYBRID VEHICLE TRAFO MERKEZİ DISTRIBUTION The integration of renewables, distributed generation, demand response programs, plug-in vehicles, etc. will introduce complexity to our electrical power grid. For example, Transmission lines will need to be constructed to carry power from off-short wind farms to populated areas As wind is integrated, intermittent and fluctuating power will require more advanced systems to be managed (3/4 of new rewable capacity in Europe will be intermittent if EU’s 2020 objectives are met – Capgemini). Distributed generation will change grid dynamics from one-way to two-way power flow between utilities and customers PHEVs will present challenges, requiring smart metering to encourage consumers not to plug in during peak hours, and technologies that will bill the appropriate consumers regardless of his location at the time of re-charging However, the benefits of these components are key in increasing energy productivity (as world wide energy consumption is expected to triple by 2050), power reliability (power outages and quality disruptions could cost UK businesses more than 9,000 pounds per hour) and decreasing the environmental footprint of the electric generation sector This is all creating a more dynamic and integrated network and our power grid was not originally designed with this future in mind. The management and optimization of these elements will require a smarter power grid. A retrofitted grid that supports distributed generation as well as distributed storage will be required. Geospatial applications will play a significant role not only in the design and engineering of this new grid but also managing the communications network will form the nervous system for this “Smart Grid”. DAĞITIM WIND POWER RÜZGAR ENERJİSİ HOUSES EV

10 Yeşil & Yenilenebilir Enerji
Mayıs 2008 Nisan 2008 And, of course, climate change is in the headlines everywhere. Mayıs 2008 28 Nisan 2008 21 Haziran 2008

11 Yenilenebilir Enerji’de Artış
Global Rüzgar & Güneş Yıllık Tesisleşme ‘03 ‘00 ‘06 8 4 17 (GWs) ‘09 34 Güneş Rüzgar As noted earlier by 2050 energy consumption could triple and a diversified energy portfolio will be required to meet those energy needs – this portfolio will include renewable sources, like wind and solar. In addition to being renewable sources, solar and wind are “free”, “domestic” and have zero emissions. Today, renewables represent about 1% of energy globally, but they are expected to double every three years. In the UK, renewable energy represents about 5% of the UK’s generation currently. Other sources are coal (37%), gas (36%), nuclear (18%), and 4% other. But, the country has lofty goals to reach 15% renewable generation by Much of this will be from wind and distributed generation. ‘00 ‘03 ‘06 ‘09 Her üç yılda ikiye katlanıyor Kaynak: REN update + EER

12 Akıllı Şebekeler’in tam zamanı
İki altyapının entegrasyonu ile... …elde edilecekler Elektriksel altyapı infrastructure Enerji güvenilirliğinin ve kalitesinin artırılması CO2 emisyonunun azaltılması Enerji ve operasyonel verimliliğin artırılması Smart grid technologies allow conservation without compromise. Through increased energy productivity or better use of our resources, we can continue to sustain our economic growth and enjoy the comforts of cold beers and hot showers. Transition to next slide: So you may be wondering what a smart grid looks like… will it change the landscape? The smart grid doesn’t look all that different from today’s grid- on the surface. It’s what the smart grid enables that makes the difference… here are some examples… Bilgi altyapısı

13 Kesinti olmadan sürekli enerji…
Believe it or not…today utilities most often find out about power outages through phone calls from the impacted parties. Smart Grid technologies improves real-time knowledge of grid status to enable proactive steps to prevent outages and reactive improvements- such as re-routing power around trouble spots and pinpoint repair deployment – to reduce the impact of outages when they occur– so, smart grid technologies help keep the lights on.

14 Yeni bir yaşam biçimi Akıllı şebeke, dağıtım şirketlerinin ve tüketicilerin daha fazla enerji, kaynak, bütçe için akıllı seçimler yapabilmesine olanak sağlayan bilgi ve karar verme araçlarından meydana gelir. “Smart grid is the integration of information technologies with our current electrical infrastructure, delivering tangible energy productivity, energy security, and environmental benefits. These technologies: Deliver increased energy efficiencies Deliver lower carbon footprint for generation and consumption Enable widespread distributed generation, including renewables Empower consumers with information to better manage electricity costs (with time of use pricing & ability to sell power back to the grid)” Evolving our grid into the 21st century and ensuring its viability– ensuring our planet can be enjoyed by future generations.

15 Bilgi yönetimi ile karmaşıklığın azaltılması
Mevcut telekomünikasyon altyapısının kullanımı ile OG ve AG’den bilgi toplanması Elektriksel altyapı + Bilgi altyapısı I’ve talked about what an intelligent grid is, now I want to talk about how it gets built. This slide describes the basic premise for how the intelligent grid gets built. The intelligent grid is not created all at once – it will evolve over many years from today’s infrastructure through the deployment and integration of Intelligent Systems Its important to note that it isn’t sufficient to just deploy intelligent systems. These systems need to be integrated or, at least, Integra table. Intelligent Systems will be deployed by utilities to perform a specific application that addresses a business or regulatory drivers. Every utility will have different drivers and will start from different places; therefore, each utility will deploy different Intelligent Systems at different rates and taking their own unique path towards creating their intelligent grid. These intelligent grids will become increasingly interconnected. The raises the challenge – multiple entities creating nationwide infrastructure. However, this isn’t a challenge that our industry has faced before. At the risk of touching on a controversial topic, it is in our industry’s best interest for the evolution of an intelligent grid to have an intelligent design Karmaşıklığın şebeke üzerinde daha fazla kontrol ile azaltılması Şebeke takviyesi ihtiyacı ile beraber

16 Akıllı Şebeke Uygulamaları – Önemli Faydalar
Operasyonel verimliliğin artması Kesinti sürelerinin azaltılması Şebeke üzerindeki kontrolün iyileştirilmesi Uçtan uca Dağıtım Yönetimi Yoğun taleplerin kaydırılması ve kayıpların azaltılması Veri bakım maliyetinin azaltılması Entegre Akıllı Şebeke sistemlerinin kullanılması Increase operational efficiency: Do more with less, automate workflows, reduce operator time and maximize team utilization. Reduce outage restoration times: Fault Detection, Isolation and Service Restoration (FDIR), Smart Switching Advisor, integrated OMS and mobile field dispatch allow the restoration process to connect, end-to-end, for faster response and better operational decisions. Improve situational awareness: Achieve full network visibility, and avoid overloading assets, with real-time distribution power flow. End-to-end Distribution Management: Take control of high and low voltage networks, with connected data models and scalable technology to manage active networks at all levels. Shift peaks and reduce losses: With multi-objective Integrated Volt-Var Control (IVVC). Lower cost of data maintenance: Out-the-box GIS integration using CIM for distribution Industry Standard for incremental model maintenance. Integrated Smart Grid Solutions: Service-based interoperability to the enterprise and other Smart Grid solutions, providing IT integration for a connected utility.

17 Dağıtım Şirketi İş Yaşam Döngüsü
Müşterilere enerji yaratıp & iletmek İletim Dağıtım Müşteri Servisi KWh Üretim İletim Operasyonları Dağıtım Operasyonları Nakit Sayaç Elektrik Yakıt alınması Şebeke Tasarımı, Tesisleşme, CBS, Varlık Yönetimi Dağıtım Şirketi Müşteri İK, diğer ofis operasyonları Nakit Finansal & Muhasebe Sistemleri Kar Fatura Nakit TL Distribution Control rooms are busy places, a typical utility is undertaking between 15 to 20 planned outages per day on some part of their network. All of these must be prepared, checked and approved before they are implemented. In emerging economies, with a faster than average rate of growth, constraints on the resources to cope with all the requests for planned outages can slow down the development of the electricity infrastructure below the rate needed to meet industrial commercial and domestic new connections requests. This is one of the main reasons why these networks become challenged with overload trips and become seen to be unreliable. Conversely where the control room workload is effectively managed, then the reliability of networks improves and this attracts new industries seeking a suitable environment for their factory. Some planned outages will incur network changes that all need to be reviewed and approved prior to live connection, and these incremental changes then need to be made visible and operable in real time. Some of them will incur loss of supply to customers and these must be minimised but also notified to the customers in advance. On top of all this planned activity, the operators must also respond to dynamic changes in the network . These can be altered loading conditions due to embedded generation or peak loads. These can be faults requiring emergency response to restore customer supply. ALL of this planned and unplanned activity deploys crews to operate and work on HV and MV networks that were recently live, and it is essential that these crews are enabled to work in a secure and safe environment. NMS deals with all this but it adds a unique level of functionality: The Control room workload management, Work Package Manager, (WPM), enables control room managers to view the current and future known workloads and set up their resourcing plan for control engineers and dispatchers to cost effectively meet the workload. The workload itself is not even. By the nature of the work there is a peak in workload in the early morning switching off parts of the network and a subsequent peak restoring the network near the end of the working day. Add to this a reluctance to plan for a Monday morning in case major disruptions occurred over the weekend and a reluctance to plan important work for a Friday, because Friday is at risk of disruption due to any delays earlier in the week. Planned work therefore concentrates on Tuesday to Thursday, however all days and all times can be used including overnight for work in city centres, main arterial roads, airports and rail lines etc and weekends where important commercial or industrial premises are affected. Control engineers are relatively highly paid and on top of that they receive additional payment for working in shifts, and further payments for responding to emergency call out. There is therefore a good business case to plan ahead and optimise the use of control engineers, matching the numbers to workload pattern and reducing the numbers of times the call outs are necessary. One of the most successful implementations of NMS enabled the centralisation of 3 control rooms into one, changed from wall diagrams and paper process to operating NMS, and reduced the necessity to employ 88 control engineers down to 20 while at the same time improving CML(SAIDI) by 30% over the same period. Operasyon Maliyeti Gelir Nakit Topla, Operasyonları Yönet & Kar Sağla Bu döngüyü yürüten sistemlerin dağıtım şirketleri üzerindeki etkisi büyüktür ve öncelik alırlar

18 Varlıklar için bazı gerçekler
Başarılı bir Akıllı Şebeke için anahtar, kullanılan varlık yönetimi sistemidir. Varlık yönetimi sisteminiz varlıklarınızın ne olduğunu, nerede olduğunu ve nasıl birbirine bağlı olduğunu bilmelidir. Eğer doğru varlık ve coğrafik bilgiye sahip değilseniz, diğer herşey sadece tahminden ibarettir. The challenge is the data: data must be stored, managed and updated It must be cleansed, integrated, consolidated Non spatial data must be geo-coded or referenced

19 Varlik yönetimi & CBS - beklentiler
Sadece harita üzerinde görüntüleme değil, daha kapsamlı platform Çoklu iş süreçlerinin spatial ihtiyaçlarının karşılanması Varlık yönetimi, mühendislik, operasyonlar, müşteri servisleri, uyumluluk Diğer uygulamalar ile entegrasyon İşgücü yönetimi, şebeke yönetim sistemleri, CRM, ERP, Kesinti Yönetimi, SCADA Endüstri özel uygulamalar

20 Uygulama Penceresinden (Öncesinde)
GÜNÜMÜZün Tasarım Mühendisi – Varlık Yönetim Sistemi olmadan CAD, ERP, CBS ve CIS sistemlerine ayrı ayrı sistem erişimi ÇOKLU BİLGİSAYARLAR MANUEL SÜREÇLER Güç akış analizi öznel etkisi İçe aktarım & Yorumla Yanlış ya da yetersiz standartlara göre yapım Bir tasarımı gerçekleştirmek için birçok araç Fazla yüklü enerji şebekesi İnsan yargısı Maliyetli yapımlar Tasarım standartlarının ve ekipmanların yorumu

21 Uygulama Penceresinden (Sonrası)
Tasarım Mühendisi – Varlık Yönetim Sistemi kullanarak CAD, ERP, CBS ve CIS SİSTEMLERİNDEN BİLGİYE ERİŞİM TEK BİR SİSTEMLE YAPILIR TEK NOKTA ERİŞİMİ OTOMATİK VERİMLİ SÜREÇLER CBS entegre tasarım araçları Entegre güç akış analiz araçları Doğru boyutta yaratmak Optimize şebeke performansı Kural-tabanlı tasarım optimizasyonu Standartlar-tabanlı inşa edilmesi Tasarım standartları kalite güvencesi Uzun dönemli bakım maliyetlerinin azaltılması ERP, CIS ve geçmiş müşteri ve sistem verisine direkt arayüz

22 Varlık Yönetimi – Yaşam Döngüsü
Dağıtım planlaması Nasıl inşa edilmeli? Sistem Planlama Araçları Varlık Yönetimi – Yaşam Döngüsü Ne zaman yatırım yapılmalı? Coğrafik Analizler Stratejik planlama Şebeke tasarımı Şebeke Tasarımı Ne inşa edilmeli? Operasyon Yönetimi Şebeke Operasyonları Hangi müşteriler etkilenmiş? Acil Durum Şebeke Veritabanı Kaydı Sahada İşin Yapılması Gerçekten ne inşa edilmiş? Mobil Ürünler Yapıldığı gibi İnşa edilmiş şebeke Nasıl yapılmış? İnceleme & Bakım Yasal Zorunluluklar Gerekli incelemeler

23 Çözüm Smallworld Ofis Araçları Nedir? Kuruma sağladığı değerler
(Elektrik & Gaz & Su & Telko) Dağıtım şirketlerinin şebeke planlama, tasarım, analiz, bakım ve operasyonlarını desteklemek için coğrafi varlık yönetimi çözümü sunan yazılım uygulamasıdır. Pahalı ve detaylı özelleştirmeler yerine kolay konfigürasyon ve ufak uzantılar kullanarak müşteri gereksinimleri için zengin fonksiyonlar sağlar. Dağıtım şebekesi için tek ve kurumsal, gerçek görünümünü vererek varlık verisinde olabilecek tutarsızlıkları giderir. Dağıtım şebekesini dokümante etmek, planlamak, tasarlamak, analiz etmek, yaratmak ve bakımını sürdürmek tek bir sistemle mümkündür. İletim (YG) Dağıtım (OG) Arayüz maliyetini ve karmaşıklığını azaltır. Kurulum, operasyon ve upgrade maliyetlerini azaltır (20-40% CBS Opex). Pahalı ve riskli yazılım özelleştirmelerini azaltır (50-70% CBS Capex). Son kullanıcı (AG)

24 Diğer Kurumsal Sistemler
Smallworld Çözüm Detayları Web Mapping Clients Internet Application Server Şebeke Yönetimi GeoSpatial Analizler Tasarım Araçları Mobil Uygulamalar FieldSmart, Field Force Automation Corridor Management Tasarım Yönetimi ve Analizler & Optimizasyon Gas Distribution and Global Transmission Offices Electric Office Water Office Entegrasyon Business Integrator, GeoSpatial Server GIS (CIM) Adapter (Electric) Advanced Electric Analysis IPA Modules – Installation Productivity & Administrative Smallworld Core Spatial Teknoloji Here is an example of what’s possible from a business benefits perspective. Today our customers are capable of achieving benefits in all aspects of the asset lifecycle. ROI cost benefits initiatives Corporate Data Sources Oracle Spatial, Databases, CAD Files, Etc. Diğer Kurumsal Sistemler Varlık Yönetimi, Risk Analizleri/Değerlendirmeleri, Integrity Yönetimi, ERP, Arıza ve Dağıtım Yönetimi


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